My bet against it: No Kurdish state in the next 4 years

[Gotha, Germany] What a task to bet against you, Mustafa! – especially since I love the idea of small states (as long as they are ready to enjoy a relative position in something larger like the EU) (I would actually invite all the world to become EU-States).

As to your specific prognosis. It somehow contradicts the satires that went through the web and that already foresaw Iraq divided by international oil companies.

Re-mapping the middle east is a sport at the moment. Some see Turkey expanding into Iraq’s Kurdistan (I do not think that this is what the Kurds on either side of the border would like to see).

Kurdistan Turkish

Some see, with Bernard Lewis and the plan he sketched in the late 1970s the entire Middle Eastern map rearranged under borders that pay more respect to the ethnic and religious division lines.

The Bernard Lewis Plan for the Middle East

A Kurdish state on the map would create major problems – especially since it would be to the profit of one of the major oil reserves without helping anyone else in the region. Turkish Kurds would not profit from their rich neighbour, if they were kept apart. The rest of Iraq would simply suffer from the loss. And the export of oil – is a bad nation builder. I, at least, would not expect a second Norway to rise in the Middle East. These are the numbers al Jazeera gives:

Iraq Oil Production

So, yes, let me bet against you. It would need a wide civil war to justify the separation in a necessary solution of a problem. It would need something as big as an attack of greater Iraq against the Kurds to justify that new Kurdistan in an ethnic rescue plan – I do not see this happen.

Eventually I do not know whether a plan like the Bernard Lewis’ plan would be all that bad – if a greater union could become a pleasant roof above these states, which is another thing I do not believe to happen.

Too many wishes run through such a prediction

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I bet: We will see a Kurdish state created in Iraq before the end of 2016

[Düsseldorf, Germany] Let me (with that look at Istanbul, “the future capital of the Positivist Empire” and the fragmentation Michel discussed) – risk a bet, seriously:

I contend that within the next three or four years we will see the emergence of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq – Iraq as we know it will cease to exist.

  • My first assumption: Iraq’s Kurdistan will be turned into an independent state before the end of 2016.
  • Assumption number two: the status of the Kurds in Turkey will improved in the meantime– I do not think that this will add up to autonomy or anything comparable, yet that will happen.
  • My third assumption: The U.S. is will continue to invest in Iraq’s Kurdistan as their Middle Eastern military base. It will be their aim to control Afghanistan from here. Their strategy against Iran will support them in this decision.
  • My fourth assumption: Syria’s present president Bashar al-Assad will be out of power by 2016. Sunnites and the Kurds will receive extensive rights in Syria.

Kurdish FlagWhy do I expect all this to happen before 2016? Because in 2016 the will be the year of the 58th presidential election in the United States. If Obama (I suppose he is going to be re-elected this year) wants to leave his seat to a Democrat in 2016, he will have to show some success in the Middle East. To pull out troops from Iraq will not be enough – and to pull them out of Afghanistan will feel like a defeat, if that is all he will do. If, however, the US should be able to point at an extremely reliable “partner” down there (and they will find no better than and none as grateful the Kurds!), well, then they will continue to be able to operate in the background in the Middle East. Israel would appreciate the arrangement and enjoy a partner they could have in the very vicinity of the “evil mullahs”.

All this will be a business deal on political and financial terms. The Kurds are the most grateful “customer” of US-American politics in Iraq today. And do not forget: It is, after Kurdish land, “occupied” by Iraqi “Arabs”. The Kurds will get back what they feel is theirs – this is their home!

Basically I agree with the statements Ofra Bengio, professor at Tel Aviv University, has made in the past. She goes much further, claiming that the Turkish government (!) will act the part of the “midwife” for the state to come. Google her name. She is a vanguard analyst.

A crate of beer sounds like a fair wager to me

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dOCUMENTA (13), first day, first images

Website: http://d13.documenta.de/de/
Place: Kassel
When: June 9 till September 16, 2012

Yan Lei, Limited Art Project

Yan Lei, Limited Art Project



CHAOS IS USEFUL

CHAOS IS USEFUL

documenta is an exhibition of modern and contemporary art which takes place every five years in Kassel, Germany. It was founded by artist, teacher and curator Arnold Bode in 1955. [...] The first documenta featured many artists who are generally considered to have had a significant influence on modern art (such as Picasso and Kandinsky). The more recent documentas feature art from all continents; nonetheless most of it is site-specific. (Wikipedia)

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Polity in a cosmic context.

[Paris, France] Comte had an acute feeling for the way humanity is dependent on astronomical conditions – assume small changes in the elliptical orbit of Earth, in the inclination of Ecliptic, and life, at least life as we know it, would have been impossible. Humanity, the proper study of sociology, is closely connected to the Earth, the human planet, “with its two liquid envelopes.” In spite of the Copernican revolution, Earth remains for each of us the firm, unshakable ground upon which everything stands.

See for instance what the System (t.II, p. 285; English translation p. 237) says about fatherland and the way “the Tent, the Car or the Ship, are to the nomad family a sort of moveable Country, connecting the Family or the Horde with its material base, as with us the gypsy in his van.” Politics is grounded in geopolitics, where geo retains its etymological meaning – Gaia – and where Earth is understood as a planet in the solar system. This cosmic character of positive polity helps us to understand what could appear as an inconsistency in positive polity. It provides the framework for dealing with a great concern for positivists, namely international relations and more particularly, the relations between East and West. Temporal Localism and Spiritual Centralism. After 1851, Comte proposed to break down France into 19 “intendances.” Such a suggestion is quite puzzling, being incompatible with the point of view usually presented as positive policy. The proposal arises from the contrast between two political traditions – French Jacobin and English liberal: the first opts for local power, the second for centralisation. Comte himself adopts it in his historical lessons; the positivist society takes as its model the “Club des Jacobins” and what he says about Paris follows this line of thought. Hence the idea that Comte is a supporter of centralisation, an interpretation Hayek later used to characterize his thought. But that is a one-sided reading, which does not take account of what Comte always gave as his main point in politics – the necessary distinction between spiritual and temporal power. He complained it was not understood in this respect and we have here a very good example of the effect of this blindness. According the kind of power you are considering, the situation changes totally. Centralisation applies only to spiritual power (Comte clearly has in mind the Papacy) and temporal power is by nature local. There are a lot of passages where the correlation is clearly stated. This follows from the fact that the mind does not know boundaries – a spiritual power has no choice but to be catholic, universal. Its domain is the planet Earth. From this, we have at least two consequences. The first is a strong interest in European reconstruction, a political priority between 1815 and 1820. The second is the realization that States as we know them are a historical product, which did not exist before 1500, and there is no reason to believe that they will exist for ever. Hence his proposal to break down France in 19 “intendance.” The extension of temporal power is not allowed to go beyond territories like Belgium or Corsica.

From West to East: Paris to Constantinople.

In spite of his anti-colonialism, Comte’s view of history remained Euroentric. In world history, he distinguished between two stages – one was common to all peoples, another took place only in Europe. As the place where positive thinking appeared and developed, Europe is the elite of humanity. But now that positivism is established, the question arises – how to spread the religion of humanity? The “question d’Orient” was a great concern for positivists. Comte wrote extensively about the Crimean War and the conflict between Russia and Turkey. They are not part of the “Occidental Republic” but they raise questions about its legitimate extension. Both belong to Eastern Europe and are struggling for hegemony, but which one has the best claim? Remember that Comte wrote letters to the Tsar and also to the Sultan or his Vizir. Comte sided at first with Russia but later retracted and ended up more sympathetic to Turkey. If you introduce religious considerations (the Sultan was also the Caliph), it raises the question of the relationship between two monotheisms. Positivists discussed extensively the respective merits of Christianity and Islam. In this respect, the foundation of Constantinople, the splitting of Roman Empire, and the Great Schism are also to be taken into account. As an Orthodox Christian country, Russia claimed to be in some sense the heir of the Oriental Empire, and he said he wanted to help the Orthodox Slavonic peoples oppressed by the Ottoman Empire. Comte thought Paris was the world capital of his time and he planned to write a book about it – “la ville habitée par ceux qui n’y sont pas nés” was to supplant Rome as capital of the new spiritual power. As for temporal power, the Parisian working class also had a pre-eminent role. The reasons are straightforward – in 1789, 1830, and 1848 it was the direct cause of the collapse of the government through revolution. Furthermore, positivism was urban minded, it did not trust the rural classes who voted for right wing monarchists.  But it was not to remain so for eternity and Comte wanted the capital to be switched later on to Constantinople. Turks were greatly appreciative of the positivist position. Ahmed Reza, an influent politician, was overtly positivist. Atatürk and the Young Turks were strongly influenced by them. The secular position represented a solution to many of the problems of the Empire. It would also solve many of today’s problems, if only enough countries were prepared to adopt it.

 

Images: 1. Asa Smith, Smith’s Illustrated Astronomy, (New York City: Cady & Burgess, 1850). 2. Charles Meryon, La Morgue (the Mortuary, Paris). 1854. Etching. [The morgue, formerly an abbatoir, built in 1568, was located in the Île de la Cité, the epicenter of Paris. Subsequently the building was moved. The composition has a contrasts the emotions of the impersonal crowd with the pathos of the mourners.] 3. Mosque and street, Scutari, Constantinople (color photochrome, between 1890 and 1900).
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